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IntroductionForecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees (Yucca brevifoliaandY. jaegeriana, respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss. MethodsWe conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km2grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees. ResultsWhile the environments occupied byY. brevifoliaandY. jaegerianawere similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat forY. jaegerianaextends throughout the range ofY. brevifolia, while potential habitat forY. brevifoliais not well represented within the range ofY. jaegeriana. DiscussionBy reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.more » « less
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Elgar, Mark A. (Ed.)Coevolution—reciprocal evolutionary change between interacting lineages (Thompson, 1994; see Glossary)—is thought to have played a profound role in the evolution of Life on Earth. From similar patterns across the wings of unrelated lineages of butterflies (Hoyal Cuthill and Charleston, 2015), egg mimicry of “cheating” brood parasites (Davies, 2010), to the role of animal pollinators in driving the diversification of flowering plants (Kay and Sargent, 2009), to the ubiquity of sexual reproduction and sexual conflicts (Hamilton, 2002; Arnqvist and Rowe, 2005; King et al., 2009), the formation of the eukaryotic cell (Martin et al., 2015; Imachi et al., 2020), and even the origin of living organisms themselves (Mizuuchi and Ichihashi, 2018), evolutionary changes among interacting lineages have played profound and important roles in the history of Life. This Grand Challenges inaugural contribution encompasses eclectic opinions of the editorial board as to what are the next frontiers of coevolution research in the 21st century. Coevolutionary biology is a field that has garnered a lot of attention in recent years, in part as a result of technical advances in nucleotide sequencing and bioinformatics in the burgeoning field of host–microbial interactions. Many seminal studies of coevolution examined reciprocal evolutionary change between two or a few interacting macroscopic species that imposed selective pressures on one another (e.g., insect or bird pollinators and their flowering host plants). Understanding the contexts under which coevolution occurs, as opposed to scenarios in which each partner adapts independently to a particular environment (Darwin, 1862; Stiles, 1978) is important to elucidate coevolutionary processes. A whole spectrum of organismal interactions has been examined under the lens of coevolution, providing additional context, and nuance to ecological strategies traditionally categorized as ranging from beneficial to detrimental for participating species (Figure 1). In particular, a coevolutionary perspective has revealed that even “mutualisms” are not always fully beneficial or cooperative for the partners involved. Instead, the tendency to “cheat” permeates across symbiotic partnerships (Perez-Lamarque et al., 2020). Conversely, recent evidence suggests that non-lethal predation by co-evolved predators, which has traditionally been assumed to be entirely antagonistic, may provide sessile prey with some indirect benefit through enhanced opportunities to acquire beneficial symbiotic microorganisms (Grupstra et al., 2021). Herein, we discuss some of the recent areas of active research in coevolution, restricting our focus to coevolution between interacting species.more » « less
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